A Kadampa Prophecy Until the End of Samsara

I did the math between now and the end of samsara according to the Kadampa teachings. It yielded some interesting results.

First, I assumed a starting point where beings are equally distributed in the six realms plus one Buddha for all of samsara (not accurate, but some people struggle to accept that 99% of all beings are already in hell, so to humor them, I did an even distribution). I then assumed a starting rate of virtue for each type of being depending on the realm they occupy. At the end of each period beings go up or they go down a realm based on the percentage of virtue of that realm.

I then assumed a certain percentage of humans attain enlightenment in each period. To calculate the attain enlightenment/human ratio I took the total number of humans on earth divided by the number who I’m estimating attain enlightenment (7.6 billion people, 30,000 Kadampas, 2,500 of whom attain enlightenment = 0.00003% enlightenment rate). With each increase in the number of Buddhas, I assume the amount they bless the minds of living beings goes up 1%, thus increasing the rate of virtue for the human, animal, hungry ghost, and hell realms. I did not assume the virtue rate goes up for beings in the demi-god and god realms because then they get stuck in those realms and never attain a human rebirth. Presumably, Buddhas would bless their minds to take human rebirths.

In the beginning, as would be expected, almost everyone falls into the lower realms, in particular the hell realm because once you take rebirth in the lower realms, it is almost impossible to get out. But gradually over time, the number of Buddhas increases, who are then able to bless the minds of the beings in the lower realms more and more effectively. After about 23% of time between now and the end of samsara, due to all the blessings of the now more numerous Buddhas, the lower realms are emptied and almost everyone is in the upper realms. At that time, there is a big spike in the number of humans who start attaining enlightenment at faster rates, again thanks to increased blessings from the Buddhas.

The demographics of samsara over time

We then start a very long period where we wait for Gods and demi-gods to burn up their merit to fall down into the human realm, where then a growing percentage of them attain enlightenment. At around the 75% of time mark, there is an exponential growth in the number of Buddhas who then so outnumber humans, they reach an efficiency where anybody who reaches the human realm attains enlightenment in that life.

Once that stage is reached, there are still about 700,000 remaining beings who just refuse to let go of their pleasures in the demi-god and god realms, ignoring their spiritual guides who go and visit them there. But eventually, enough of them fall back into the human realm, drip by drip, where they then attain enlightenment.

After about 100 periods, essentially all of samsara is emptied except about 12,500 of the last stragglers.

Let me know if you have suggestions on how to change the assumptions of the model. Obviously, this is all an estimate, but it does paint a pretty accurate picture of how things are likely to unfold between now and the end of samsara based upon my understanding of the Kadampa teachings.

4 thoughts on “A Kadampa Prophecy Until the End of Samsara

  1. That’s hillarious….completely within the sphere of my eclectic type of humour 😉😅🤣🙃😁😇.

    Perhaps a little pessimistic though wrt one of your assumptions.

    I’m guessing that NKT buddhists make up the smaller proprtion of worldwide buddhists….and that it’s not just NKT buddhists that get enlightened. Thus the rate of those getting enlightened is increased and therefore the volume of Mahayana blessings should increase, resulting in a reduction in duration of those beings in lower realms iaw your model. Combine this with the missing PIF (performance shaping factor) of ‘from every pore of my body, I emanate another body’ etc…means that the number of effective emanations is incalculable…..the REAL ‘X’ Factor…….hmmm, I feel a Disertation coming on (joke).

    Love the intellectual humour….hope it didn’t take you long to compose.

    Thank you again 😁😂🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂🙃🙂🙃

    Dachog.(Uk).

    • What’s funny is since I have posted this, all sorts of other math nerds have reached out. Who knew there was a geek sub-culture within the Kadampa community! Clearly the above is according to Sutra, your Tantra view model empties samsara all in one go! Much better for living beings, but much less fun to model… 🙂

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